moody's probability of default table 2021

Financial specialist with 5+ years of experience across quantitative research, macroeconomic analysis, and data science. (1434), Latin America & Caribbean (2), Somalia Learn how Moody's ratings and analysis speak to the relative credit risk of debt instruments and securities across industries and asset classes around the globe. (1), Pennsylvania US Credit Compass indicates further deterioration as lending standards tighten and sentiment worsens, The performance of Moody's corporate debt ratings Q2 2022, This publication provides updated measures of the, Corporate defaults more than double in August from the prior month. (2), Guatemala (9), Maldives Weekly Market Outlook Markets, Bankers and Analysts Differ on 2021's . Prior to his work at MassMutual, Mark held a range of senior finance leadership roles at Voya Financial (formerly ING U.S.). McDaniel began his career at the Company serving as a ratings analyst and served in numerous capacities at the Company over the past three decades. (2), Mexico Prior to Moodys, he held roles in alternative investments, corporate strategy & business development, and investment banking at Citi. Senior Vice PresidentChief Information OfficerMona Breed is the Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Moodys Corporation. (1271), Europe, Middle East & Africa (9), Slovakia If this isn't what you are looking for, you can, Moody's Default and Ratings Analytics team publishes Moodys default studies, ratings transitions and ratings performance studies for corporates, financial institutions, sovereign and sub-sovereign, public finance and infrastructure sectors. (1), New Mexico (1), Kansas Zig brings a wealth of experience to the board, strengthening the Companys focus on innovation and enhancing operational and technological skillsets.I am grateful to Rob Fauber for his leadership since becoming President and Chief Executive Officer of Moodys Corporation in January 2021. (6), Croatia (1), Utah Before Moodys Analytics was formed in 2008, Mr. Tulenko developed extensive customer experience and held several leadership roles in sales, product development and marketing within Moodys. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kenney was a Managing Director at Deloitte, serving as leader to several internal audit departments, external financial statement audits, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance efforts and large regulatory compliance engagements. "The recession induced by the coronavirus pandemic led to a rapid increase in defaults in 2020", says Moody's Vice President Sharon Ou. We also launched the next generation of Supply Chain Catalyst, offering our customers an enterprise-wide view of critical supply chain relationships, including factors such as financial health, sustainability and reputational risk.In response to intense need for interconnected CRE data and analytics to support lending and investing workflows, we accelerated the development of our SaaS workflow solution for CRE lenders and our portfolio monitoring solution for CRE investors. To estimate the long term country equity risk premium, I start with a default spread, which I obtain in one of two ways: (1) I use the local currency sovereign rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. He is also a member of the Washington Economics Club.Mr. MOODYS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE. (2), Australia He also served as chairman of that companys board for approximately eight years. (1), New Technologies (6), France Over the course of the year, we have executed on those priorities, investing in capabilities to better serve a broader range of customers and accelerating our ambition to be the leading global provider of integrated perspectives on risk. DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. He has served as the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH), a business management consulting company, since 2016. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kapusta served as counsel for a large New York City law firm and held several senior roles within Deloitte, where he provided corporate and tax advice to U.S. multinationals. Hogan has served as the companys Treasurer since September 2019. from St. Johns University School of Law. All rights reserved. And, as our customers increasingly seek to understand and quantify the risk of a cyber attack in their organizations and across their supply chains, we made a $250 million investment in BitSight, a leading provider of cyber security risk ratings.All of these initiatives translated into impressive financial performance and continued strong returns for our stockholders. (1), Idaho As I observed last year, our customers seek solutions to help them identify, measure and manage a wider range of interconnected risks. Once again, our employees powered through the pandemic, working together to support each other and our customers with passion and commitment. Her various executive roles at Cisco Systems, Inc. allow her to bring extensive leadership experience and a strong background in information technology and business operations to the Board. (1584), Default Studies In addition, his service since 2005 as a director of John Wiley & Sons, Inc., which develops, publishes and sells products in print and electronic media for the educational, professional, scientific, technical, medical and consumer markets worldwide, has provided him with perspective on public company governance issues. Moodys Analytics offers a modular, flexible, and comprehensive IFRS 9 impairment solution that facilitates banks efforts to calculate and manage capital set asides for these provisions. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. To help address the emerging cyber risk segment, in 2021 Moodys invested and partnered with BitSight, a pioneer in cybersecurity ratings and analytics. Mr. Kenney has over twenty-five years of experience in internal audit, risk management, business process and internal controls. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. (6), Cayman Islands - Off Shore (6), Papua New Guinea (2), Thailand The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Rental Vehicle Securitizations Methodology" published in October 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys . (91), Nicaragua (2), Antigua and Barbuda Copyright 2023 Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates. MOODY'S CORPORATION REPORTS RESULTS FOR FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2021; SETS FULL YEAR 2022 AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOKS Moody's Corporation 4Q 2021 revenue of $1.5 billion, up 19% from 4Q 2020; FY 2021 revenue of $6.2 billion, up 16% from FY 2020 4Q 2021 diluted EPS of $2.28, up 37% from 4Q 2020 and adjusted diluted EPS. (6), Comoros 15 Dec 2022. The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. The table shows how the Portfolio's average annual total returns for one year, five years and since inception compare to those of selected market indices. (7), Gabon We held over 13,000 customer engagement meetings, a 12% increase over 2020. Revised Senior Ratings Algorithm2015 Oil BustDefinition of Default and Rating SymbolsTrading Prices vs. She held various executive roles at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan) from 1997 through 2015, including Global Chairman of Financial Institutions Group, Co-Head of Banking, Asia Pacific, and Head of Global Debt Capital Markets. As the head of risk for a major global financial institution, he was involved in the debt restructuring of various sovereigns around the world. (2021) note that one third of all U.S. corporate bonds have a fixed call feature, . Stockholders and other stakeholders may communicate with the Board, or with a specific director or directors, by writing to: 2022 Moodys Corporation, Moodys Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). (8), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global corporate default rate will climb as macroeconomic and credit conditions worsen, Global corporate default rate will nearly double in a year. She also serves as the Senior Independent Director at National Grid plc (March 2014-present).Ms Esperdys extensive experience in global investment banking and financial markets provides her with strategic and financial expertise that is critical to overseeing the Companys strategies. (6), Slovenia Previously, he was a Managing Director in the M&A groups at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America and held similar roles in the M&A groups at Citigroup and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. (2), Burundi (2), Monaco (2), Liechtenstein (1), Oklahoma (6), Puerto Rico (1), Missouri As such, these ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of the default probability and loss severity of these issuers and issues. (6), Panama - Off Shore (2), Libya Mr. Goggins holds a J.D. The Oil & Gas sector suffered from a very sharp drop in oil prices in 2020 as the pandemic severely curbed economic activity and energy demand, and the lack of an agreement on supply cuts early in 2020. (2), Malaysia (6), Oman (2), Saint Lucia The 2.1% fallen angel rate in 2020, although noticeably higher than the 1.1% rate in 2019, matched the long-term average since 1983. (1), New Hampshire Exposure at default is an estimated value that predicts the amount of loss a bank may experience when a debtor defaults on a loan. (2), Zimbabwe (1), California He also served on the boards of ConvergEx Inc. from May 2007 to October 2013, Direct Line Insurance Group plc from April 2012 to October 2013 and WorldPay (Ship Midco Limited) from July 2011 to September 2013, and on the franchise board of Lloyds of London from September 2012 to May 2016.Mr. (6), Guinea (1), Rhode Island As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 . (2), Liberia He served as a director of Citibank N.A. (5), Growth: Macroeconomic outlook & insights on fiscal and monetary policies The speculative-grade corporate default rate will climb to 4.3% next year under our baseline forecast, up from 2.3% in September. (1361), Asia Pacific Chief Executive OfficerQualtrics International Inc.Director since July 2021 Zig Serafin, age 48, was appointed a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors, effective July 14, 2021. In this role, Ms. Kazanjian is primarily responsible for setting and overseeing the execution of the Company's strategy to attract, grow, and retain extraordinary talent in service of our business. Moody's returned $116 million to its stockholders via dividend payments during the second quarter of 2021. Global speculative-grade default rate to peak at 7.3% in March before declining to 4.7% at year-end, Number of defaults likely will fall over the course of 2021, as economies recover. (1), Massachusetts The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. (2), Sierra Leone He also is a member of the advisory committees for Finance and Audit at OnePulse Foundation. Consequently, we can approximate between 64,000 and a little over 100,000 mortgages will be at risk of a default in Louisiana over the next few months. All rights reserved. (1), Georgia (2), Malta Senior Vice President,Chief Strategy OfficerMr. (2), Costa Rica 12/31/2021: 21.08: 28.68: 11/30/2022: 3.52-13.12: 12/31/2022-.51-18.13: (10), Gulf Cooperation Council (10), Cocos (Keeling) Islands Default Trends - Latin America & Caribbean: Latin American corporate default rate will rise gradually in 2023 as growth stalls. Additionally, DRA publishes analytical research reports on topics that are of interest to broader fixed-income markets community.. Mark joined Moodys in 2018 after more than 15 years of diverse experience in business finance, financial planning and analysis, strategy and large-scale project management. (2), Fiji METRICS AND TARGETS 10 SCOPE 2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION 10. For example, an A- rated bond has a probability of default over five years of 0.57%. He also has a strong background in information systems and cyber-related matters. He serves as a director of the Community Foundation of Brazos Valley where he served as Chairman from July 2013 to June 2014 and currently serves as the chairman of the Investment Committee.Mr. Throughout 2021, the global pandemic continued to impact Moodys employees, customers, stockholders and communities. (70), New Zealand Using Moody's Analytics probability of default models, we see credit deterioration across firms of all sizes and industries. (2), Gambia Mr. McDaniel currently is a director of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (2005-present) and a member of the Board of Trustees of Muhlenberg College (2015-present).Mr. From 1987 to 1996, Ms Seidman served as Vice President, Accounting Policy and in other roles at J.P. Morgan & Company, Inc. (now JPMorgan Chase) and from 1984 to 1987, Ms Seidman served as an auditor for Arthur Young & Co. (now EY). Default Trends and Rating Transitions | Moody's Default Trends and Rating Transitions This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. (2), Trinidad & Tobago Mr. Fauber joined the Board of Directors in October 2020 and he currently serves on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors. (2), Eritrea Mr. Serafin joined Qualtrics in October 2016 as Chief Operating Officer. These impressive results are the product of the many investments we have made in our people and our offerings and speak to the value that customers place on our expertise and solutions. (58), Debt Sustainability (2), Kazakhstan (8), Sovereign & Supranational President & Chief Executive OfficerMoodys CorporationDirector since October 2020Robert Fauber, age 51, has served as the Companys President and Chief Executive Officer since January 2021. He leads a team whose mission is to provide near real-time data driven financial insight to support the execution of superior operational and strategic decisions. Mr. Tulenko joined Moodys in 1990. Mr. Forlenza served as BDs Chief Executive Officer from 2011 to January 2020 and President from 2009 to April 2017. To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYS.To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.Moodys Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation (MCO), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodys Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. MCO and Moodys Investors Service also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of Moodys Investors Service credit ratings and credit rating processes. (1), Kentucky Retired Chief Risk OfficerCitigroup, Inc.Director since April 2011Jorge A. Bermudez, age 70, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. (2), Italy She also held various leadership positions across the organization including roles in Business Process Management and Ratings Operations, Investor Relations, Structured Finance Surveillance, Public Finance, Business Planning and Revenue Accounting. Companies with weak credit quality will have the most trouble refinancing, raising default risk. Providing trusted insights and standards that help decision makers act with confidence. Prior to joining the Company, Ms. Sullivan served in several roles at Bank of America from 2011 to 2018, where her last position held was Managing Director and Global Banking Controller. (2), Saudi Arabia He is admitted to the New York State bar. In this new report, Moody's forecasts that the rate will peak at 7.3% in March 2021, and then decline to 4.7% by December. All rights reserved. Our platform combines the Moody's Analytics Expected Default Frequency (EDF) model, which measures the probability that a firm will default in the next 12 months, with cutting-edge analytics to deliver tools that can provide early warning on your exposures. Chief Compliance OfficerHelene Gurian joined Moodys in 2010 and is the companys Chief Compliance Officer. Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1258722. (2), Seychelles (5), Macedonia (former Yugoslav Republic of) (2), Honduras Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. Mr. Fauber earned his B.A. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. And, we will ensure that Moodys is a place where the best talent wants to come and stay through investments in our people and our culture. For example, the weight on financial information relative to behavioral information will be lower for a small private business than for a medium-sized enterprise. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. Mr. Fauber joined Moodys in 2005 and has held multiple leadership roles at Moodys. Chief Financial OfficerMark Kaye is the Chief Financial Officer of Moodys Corporation with responsibility and oversight for all global financial activities. visit our web site at www.moodys.com. Moody's municipal ratings are opinions of the investment quality of the issues and issues in the US municipal and tax-exempt markets. In 2021, we contributed to this goal through our many Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, the work of the Moodys Foundation, and by encouraging employee volunteerism.Highlights of our 2021 CSR program include the introduction of paid time off for employees to volunteer and meaningful support in the form of a $16 million contribution to the Moodys Foundation. (2), Suriname (2), Guam Chief of StaffTameka Alsop is Managing Director, Chief of Staff to the CEO at Moodys Corporation and a member of the Executive Leadership Team. (33), Corporates (1), Coronavirus Effects (2), Bolivia (2), Brazil Earlier in his more than 30-year financial services career, he held senior positions with Deutsche Bank, Wasserstein Perella Group and Kidder Peabody & Co. Mr. Van Saun has served on a number of boards in both the U.S. and the U.K. We employed a forward intensity approach to predict the multi-period defaults of Chinese-listed firms during the period 2001-2019 on a monthly basis. Study shows repeated company defaults usually reflect prolonged industry stress. (1), Arkansas (6), Isle of Man The aggregation is customized to each firm. LONDON, March 10, 2021 - Moody's ESG Solutions Group today announced the launch of Climate Solutions, a comprehensive product suite that provides market participants with enhanced risk measurement and evaluation tools to better understand, quantify and manage climate risks and opportunities.Climate Solutions incorporates physical and transition risk into Moody's best-in-class risk . Mr. Howell previously served as a director of Integra Lifesciences Holdings Corporation, a medical devices company (2013-February 2021). There are three major credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch) that provide ratings on bond. This page provides a central resource for Moodys research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, ratingtransitions and performance, and liquidity studies. (5), Morocco We are focused on providing a world-class experience for our customers, anchored around their sense of value, to help expand our relationships with them as we meet their needs.I am confident that we will realize the benefits of our investments as we provide differentiated integrated solutions that accelerate our growth. London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong This publication does not announce a credit rating action. (1), Emerging Markets (2), Lesotho (2), Belgium Ms. Elliott has more than 25 years in senior-level corporate communications roles. Previously, Mr. West served as Managing DirectorHead of Global Structured Finance from February 2014 to May 2016 and Managing DirectorHead of Global Corporate Finance from January 2010 to January 2014. (1), South Carolina (56), North America (2), Turks and Caicos Islands (2), Kyrgyzstan The Company is proud to have met its Supplier Diversity Initiative pledge to increase the representation of women-owned businesses in its supply chain, and of the commitment made in 2021 to materially increase the population of women, and U.S. Black and Hispanic / Latino leaders across the company by 2025. That rate, if realized, would exceed the historical average. (1938), German This, combined with Moodys experienced leadership and its talented and diverse workforce, will enable continued generation of enduring value for stockholders and other important stakeholders. (6), Switzerland All Rights Reserved. The IFRS 9 guidelines pose some interesting challenges, including the following: An important consideration in the impairment model in IFRS 9 is the use of forward-looking information in the models. Please reduce your list by using the filtering tool to the left. During her tenure, the FASB established numerous accounting standards relating to financial instruments, including securitizations, derivatives and credit losses and worked with regulators and policy makers in the U.S., and in other major capital markets to develop consistent accounting standards. (9), Togo The decline in free cash flow in 2017 was primarily due to a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and the attorneys general of 21 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The Company has filed its annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.The Form 10-K, along with other Moodys SEC filings and corporate governance documents, are available, without charge, upon request to the Investor Relations Department at the Corporate Office or on ir.moodys.com.